Two questions for you on my blog tonight –
Does the US want China to take more of a role in dealing with this North Korea nuclear brinkmanship ?
And would China consider invading North Korea?
China seems to have the most influence over North Korea. And maybe the US is happy to let China take the lead with regard to security diplomacy. Typically China and North Korea have been seen as allies. But in the current global political climate does China need a belligerent and irrational neighbour causing regional security issues?
China has a long border with the North Koreans – it stretches 1420 km. And the potential for this border to become clogged with refugees, must be paramount in the Chinese officials minds, if there were to be a deterioation in the fabric of North Korean society.
In response to my two questions posed at the start of the blog – Japan would be very worried !
And perhaps the developments by China would be a PR disaster – so maybe Chinese invasion of NK would not be an option. Comments welcome – the North Koreans seem to love this kind of chess board strategy attention. Is it all a game with them?
North Korea is war of words.
I do not believe, behind close doors, US or China consider North Korea as a real threat. South Korea surely must think differently but most of the noise comes out of the US and the other western countries.
Why isn’t North Korea much of a problem?
1. US has long perfected how to deal with military threats from state actors. Current US worry is non-state actors. US and the West are obsessed with, and rightfully so, how to deal with the myriads of threats posed by Al Qaeda, Taliban, Hamas, Iranian proxies, and of course now the pirates.
2. China and US know can squat North Korea in a military conflict in a matter of days. Plus, it wouldn’t get to it since they have all sorts of observation devices (I bet) pointed at North Korea.
3. North Korea is not stupid. The survival of its current leadership is based upon hatred for the West and fear mongering. But they know very well that a true act of provocation will result in their destruction and hence will sit on the fence forever trying to balance these two positions.
http://tinkerthethinkers.wordpress.com